Chicago Bears 2012 Offense "Over"/"Under"

by Joe Persinger
@BrewMastrJoe on twitter


There is such a bitter-sweet feeling for me every time the month of July starts to come to a close.  It signifies the beginning's end of another summer.  Generally around this time baseball fans are engaged in MLB Hot Stove talk and it's usually about this time of the year if you know your team is going anywhere.  But as the excitement of baseball is talked about, the dreading of summer's end draws to a near, I'm reminded why this is my favorite time of the year.

Football.

Yes, football.

The NFL players begin to report to training camp for the perspective teams and begin a (what used to be) grueling two weeks preparing for the grind of a regular season.  With the Bear's heading into camp with high expectations (especially offensively) I decided to set some Over/Under's for Bear's newly formed "high-powered" offense.

The letters in parenthesis represent if the player will achieve the over (O) or under (U).

Matt Forte

After a tumultuous off-season with a franchise tag and bitter contract disputes, Matt Forte is returning as the Bear's starting RB for another 4 years.
The NFC North defensive secondaries ranked in the bottom half of the league.  With a loaded WR corps and Forte coming out of the backfield, the Bear's star RB can be dangerous pass threat if not game planned for properly.

Will his lack of attendance from OTA's affect his on-field production?  Based on these Over/Under's being set, it doesn't seem so.

Rush Yards:  1,100 (O)

Rush TDs:  6  (U)

Rec Yards:  500 (U)

The Bear's offensive line struggled in pass protection, but thrived in run protection.  Forte ran for 997 yards last year, and over 1,000 yards the year before.  Given the additions to the offense, it's more likely Forte will be on the "Over" side of 1,100 yards.  Now with Mike Tice calling plays, and the Bear's having a dangerous pass attack, look for another stellar year for the Bear's starting RB.  I don't expect to see a lot of Forte in goal line situations, I think that role will go the back-up Michael Bush.

Michael Bush

Drafted 4rth overall by the Oakland Raiders in 2007, Michael Bush signed with the Bear's this off-season.  Brought in as an insurance policy for the "Matt Forte" fiasco, his career 21 rushing TDs will provide the Bears with a legitimate red zone rushing threat, and will improve the depth at the running back position.

Rush Yards:  450 (O)

Rush TDs:  7  (O)


Bush likes to think of himself as more of a multi-purpose/all down running back rather than a 3rd down battering ram.  The Bear's are paying the former Oakland Raider a guaranteed of $7 million, so he is likely to see some significant playing time.  I love Bush in this role and believe he will break the 450 yards mark.  If the Bear's can get 500+ yards out of Bush, and another 1,000+ out of Forte, this offense will have a whole other dimension that will require teams to prepare for the run and the pass.

Jay Cutler

This will be the year all the eyes are on Jay Cutler.  For the first time in his short Chicago Bear's career, he has been surrounded with loads of talent at wide receiver and running back.

His reunion with QB coach Jeremy Bates and number one wide receiver Brandon Marshall will also aide in Jay's perseverance.  The right playbook and all this new talent surrounding Cutler, will he flourish in this new offense?

Pass Yards:  4,200 (O)

Pass TDs:  30  (O)

INT:  13  (U)

Pro Bowl:  No



Through training camp the question has been:  what kind offense is this?  On an interview with Waddle and Silvy (ESPN 1000) he stated that the playbook is a mix of run plays from last year, a mix of pass plays from the Denver days with Marshall and Bates, and also has some west coast elements to it.  One of the biggest changes being made is audibles.  This is where were going to see the Cutler and Marshall chemistry flourish.  With plenty of weapons, Cutler will easily be on the "Over" side of pass yards, and I believe the system will assist in that outcome as well.  I'm taking the "Under" on touchdown passes.  Tom Brady has only thrown 30+ touchdowns 3 times in his career and he did it with a great offensive line and wide receiver corps.   
Since the Bear's have so many targets on offense most secondaries are going to be spread thin.  Since they won't have the luxury of stacking up on Earl Bennet or Devin Hester, mistakes that lead to interceptions will be fewer than they have been in the last few seasons.  The NFC is a hard conference to be a pro-bowl QB and it says a lot, beating out Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and company.  If the Bear's had an offensive line, I could confidently say that Jay Cutler has a chance to be a pro-bowl QB.  I wouldn't mind being wrong on this one.

Brandon Marshall

Traded to the Bears this off-season for two 3rd round draft picks and reunited with his former teammate Jay Cutler, Marshall looks to another change of scenery in hopes of greener pastures.  For the first time in my life, the Bears will have a legitimate pro-bowl wide receiver, and a QB who is on the verge of breaking through the glass ceiling (due to a lackluster offense) that has plagued him the last three seasons.

No matter who has been throwing Marshall "the pill" he has been putting up pro-bowl numbers.  With something to prove and nothing to lose, will the Cutler-Marshall dynamic duo lead to past success'?

Rec:  95 (O)

Rec Yards:  1,250 (O)

TDs:  9 (U)

Marshall is the first true number one wide receiver this franchise has had in it's entire existence.  His presence alone will creates match-up problems for almost all NFL secondaries, and allow the Bear's offense to attack defenses in multi-faceted ways.  Considering the liberties Tice is giving Cutler, BMarsh will most likely surpass 100 receptions as he did in Denver with Jay and company.  In his two seasons with Cutler, BMarsh caught 1,325 yards in 2007 and 1,265 in 2008.  And that's when they looked like they were "just running around" on the field.  BMarsh will also be a legitimate red-zone threat the Bear's have never had (not to mention having another one in Alshon Jeffery on the other side), but since he will draw most of the coverage to his side, I don't see him catching too many touchdowns.  He has only caught 10 touchdowns once in his career, and that was in 2009 when "Neckbeard" (Kyle Orton) was slinging "the pill" (no not that pill) in Denver.   

Earl Bennet

Drafted by the Bear's in 2008, Bennet has proven to be a solid slot receiver and a favorite target for former Vanderbilt teammate Jay Cutler.  That might change slightly this year as Brandon Marshall has been thrown in the mix, but only for the better.  Now with Marshall lined up on the outside, this will force safeties to play Marshall more leaving Earl in more one-on-one match ups.

Rec:  53 (U) 

Rec Yards:  700 (U)

TDs:  4 (O)

Earl has only had 50 receptions once in his career and that was back in 2009 when the Bear's receiving corps depth was so shallow, Devin Hester was considered the number one receiver.  I don't expect him to match that capacity, but he will receive his fair share of the football.  Cutler will have plenty of options this season and with Earl in the slot, it's not an out of the question assessment that 700 yards could be attained.  But with the additions made in the off season, and depending on the use of "the Hester package", I think Earl's value will be found more in the end-zone and over the middle routes.  If there is one player I hope I'm wrong about, it's definitely Earl.  

Devin Hester

After making the switch to the Bear's number one wide receiver in 2009, Hester began to see a steady decline in his kick/punt return duties.  As a byproduct to the new additions to the wide receiver corps, Hester will see a lesser role, but will star in what Mike Tice has dubbed "The Hester Package".

What exactly this is, no one knows.  Whatever it is, it will most likely take advantage of the depth the Bears have a WR leaving Hester in more one-on-one situations, and forcing a defense to "pick it's poison".

Rec:  35 (O)

Rec Yards:  650 (O)

TDs:  4 (U)

Hester has indirectly made it known he wasn't a Mike Martz fan, as Martz didn't really find unique ways to use such a unique talent.  Mike Tice has made it known through training camp there will be a "Hester Package" available for the offense to use that will feature the speedy former Miami Hurricane player.  So it's safe to say, he will have the football thrown his way more this season versus what he has seen in the past.  Most of Hester's production has come from the Bears stretching the field vertically, and using his speed coming out of the backfield or on check down plays.  Since most secondaries are going to be focused on the two big guys on the outside, Earl in the slot, and keeping an eye on Forte in the backfield, Hester has the potential to make big plays.  It isn't really public knowledge, but most teams do not fear Hester as wide receiver.  But in the right package, with the right personnel, Hester can be that pivotal player that opens up the defense enough to stretch them vertically or catch them off-guard and create something out of nothing.