Lovie on the Hot Seat? I dont think so...

by Joe Persinger
@BrewMastrJoe


I've noticed over the last few months Love Smith isn't in possession of a high approval rating amongst all NFL fans.  As I dug further into this, I found there was a small minority (maybe more) of Bears fans who also have allowed Lovie to fall out of their graces.

But why?

One of the biggest knocks on Lovie is that he has gone through his fare share of personnel staff.  He even had to fire himself once as defensive coordinator before bringing in Rob Marinelli.  Outside of this what could be the problem?

When the Bears brought in Lovie in 2004 it only took him 3 seasons to get the team to win the NFC Championship and a trip to the Super Bowl.  They lost to the Colts that year and entered the 2007 with a lot of optimism.

There was one problem.

A lackluster offense and the drafting skills of GM Jerry Angelo finally caught up with the team.  Ron Riviera departed and they were left with 1rst round busts and a mediocre defense.

3 seasons (2007, 2008, 2009) were disappointing that brought despair on Bear's fans.  None of those teams that Lovie coached dropped under 7 wins (accept in 2004, when they went
5-11), and just missed the playoffs in 2008.  Had they won against the Falcons and the Texans in 2008, they most likely would have made the post-season.

When Jerry Angelo flexed his GM muscles and acquired Jay Cutler from the fire sale in Denver, the storied franchise in Chicago's trend was on the up and up.

They went 11-5 in 2010 and lost the NFC Championship to their rival the Green Bay Packers.  Again, Lovie and the Bears were trending up until finding out earlier this year that our GM had allowed the game to pass him by.

I don't understand why, but a lot of what was Angelo's fault has fallen on Lovie's shoulders.  He didn't do anything wrong.

When they first brought in Lovie, I was really skeptical due to his lack of emotion.  He is stone faced, and no matter what is going on, good or bad, he has the same expression.

Then I grew up as an NFL fan.

The "over-emotional head-coach" is over-rated.  Ditka has made his living off that personality and some Chicago fans love it.  They must think it's part of the game.

It's just not Lovie Smith's personality.

Lovie enters his first season with new GM Phil Emery.  Emery will keep Lovie for this season, but the Bear's head coach is fair game next off-season.

Emery is a smart guy.  He knows Lovie is a successful NFL head coach and had led this team with class through the good years and bad.

Lovie, like Jay Cutler, has been surrounded by talent.  Given the staff that he has wanted, Lovie has to continue to coach this team to victory, showing he has the continuity to be the Bears head coach.

Chicago Bears 2012 Offense "Over"/"Under"

by Joe Persinger
@BrewMastrJoe on twitter


There is such a bitter-sweet feeling for me every time the month of July starts to come to a close.  It signifies the beginning's end of another summer.  Generally around this time baseball fans are engaged in MLB Hot Stove talk and it's usually about this time of the year if you know your team is going anywhere.  But as the excitement of baseball is talked about, the dreading of summer's end draws to a near, I'm reminded why this is my favorite time of the year.

Football.

Yes, football.

The NFL players begin to report to training camp for the perspective teams and begin a (what used to be) grueling two weeks preparing for the grind of a regular season.  With the Bear's heading into camp with high expectations (especially offensively) I decided to set some Over/Under's for Bear's newly formed "high-powered" offense.

The letters in parenthesis represent if the player will achieve the over (O) or under (U).

Matt Forte

After a tumultuous off-season with a franchise tag and bitter contract disputes, Matt Forte is returning as the Bear's starting RB for another 4 years.
The NFC North defensive secondaries ranked in the bottom half of the league.  With a loaded WR corps and Forte coming out of the backfield, the Bear's star RB can be dangerous pass threat if not game planned for properly.

Will his lack of attendance from OTA's affect his on-field production?  Based on these Over/Under's being set, it doesn't seem so.

Rush Yards:  1,100 (O)

Rush TDs:  6  (U)

Rec Yards:  500 (U)

The Bear's offensive line struggled in pass protection, but thrived in run protection.  Forte ran for 997 yards last year, and over 1,000 yards the year before.  Given the additions to the offense, it's more likely Forte will be on the "Over" side of 1,100 yards.  Now with Mike Tice calling plays, and the Bear's having a dangerous pass attack, look for another stellar year for the Bear's starting RB.  I don't expect to see a lot of Forte in goal line situations, I think that role will go the back-up Michael Bush.

Michael Bush

Drafted 4rth overall by the Oakland Raiders in 2007, Michael Bush signed with the Bear's this off-season.  Brought in as an insurance policy for the "Matt Forte" fiasco, his career 21 rushing TDs will provide the Bears with a legitimate red zone rushing threat, and will improve the depth at the running back position.

Rush Yards:  450 (O)

Rush TDs:  7  (O)


Bush likes to think of himself as more of a multi-purpose/all down running back rather than a 3rd down battering ram.  The Bear's are paying the former Oakland Raider a guaranteed of $7 million, so he is likely to see some significant playing time.  I love Bush in this role and believe he will break the 450 yards mark.  If the Bear's can get 500+ yards out of Bush, and another 1,000+ out of Forte, this offense will have a whole other dimension that will require teams to prepare for the run and the pass.

Jay Cutler

This will be the year all the eyes are on Jay Cutler.  For the first time in his short Chicago Bear's career, he has been surrounded with loads of talent at wide receiver and running back.

His reunion with QB coach Jeremy Bates and number one wide receiver Brandon Marshall will also aide in Jay's perseverance.  The right playbook and all this new talent surrounding Cutler, will he flourish in this new offense?

Pass Yards:  4,200 (O)

Pass TDs:  30  (O)

INT:  13  (U)

Pro Bowl:  No



Through training camp the question has been:  what kind offense is this?  On an interview with Waddle and Silvy (ESPN 1000) he stated that the playbook is a mix of run plays from last year, a mix of pass plays from the Denver days with Marshall and Bates, and also has some west coast elements to it.  One of the biggest changes being made is audibles.  This is where were going to see the Cutler and Marshall chemistry flourish.  With plenty of weapons, Cutler will easily be on the "Over" side of pass yards, and I believe the system will assist in that outcome as well.  I'm taking the "Under" on touchdown passes.  Tom Brady has only thrown 30+ touchdowns 3 times in his career and he did it with a great offensive line and wide receiver corps.   
Since the Bear's have so many targets on offense most secondaries are going to be spread thin.  Since they won't have the luxury of stacking up on Earl Bennet or Devin Hester, mistakes that lead to interceptions will be fewer than they have been in the last few seasons.  The NFC is a hard conference to be a pro-bowl QB and it says a lot, beating out Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and company.  If the Bear's had an offensive line, I could confidently say that Jay Cutler has a chance to be a pro-bowl QB.  I wouldn't mind being wrong on this one.

Brandon Marshall

Traded to the Bears this off-season for two 3rd round draft picks and reunited with his former teammate Jay Cutler, Marshall looks to another change of scenery in hopes of greener pastures.  For the first time in my life, the Bears will have a legitimate pro-bowl wide receiver, and a QB who is on the verge of breaking through the glass ceiling (due to a lackluster offense) that has plagued him the last three seasons.

No matter who has been throwing Marshall "the pill" he has been putting up pro-bowl numbers.  With something to prove and nothing to lose, will the Cutler-Marshall dynamic duo lead to past success'?

Rec:  95 (O)

Rec Yards:  1,250 (O)

TDs:  9 (U)

Marshall is the first true number one wide receiver this franchise has had in it's entire existence.  His presence alone will creates match-up problems for almost all NFL secondaries, and allow the Bear's offense to attack defenses in multi-faceted ways.  Considering the liberties Tice is giving Cutler, BMarsh will most likely surpass 100 receptions as he did in Denver with Jay and company.  In his two seasons with Cutler, BMarsh caught 1,325 yards in 2007 and 1,265 in 2008.  And that's when they looked like they were "just running around" on the field.  BMarsh will also be a legitimate red-zone threat the Bear's have never had (not to mention having another one in Alshon Jeffery on the other side), but since he will draw most of the coverage to his side, I don't see him catching too many touchdowns.  He has only caught 10 touchdowns once in his career, and that was in 2009 when "Neckbeard" (Kyle Orton) was slinging "the pill" (no not that pill) in Denver.   

Earl Bennet

Drafted by the Bear's in 2008, Bennet has proven to be a solid slot receiver and a favorite target for former Vanderbilt teammate Jay Cutler.  That might change slightly this year as Brandon Marshall has been thrown in the mix, but only for the better.  Now with Marshall lined up on the outside, this will force safeties to play Marshall more leaving Earl in more one-on-one match ups.

Rec:  53 (U) 

Rec Yards:  700 (U)

TDs:  4 (O)

Earl has only had 50 receptions once in his career and that was back in 2009 when the Bear's receiving corps depth was so shallow, Devin Hester was considered the number one receiver.  I don't expect him to match that capacity, but he will receive his fair share of the football.  Cutler will have plenty of options this season and with Earl in the slot, it's not an out of the question assessment that 700 yards could be attained.  But with the additions made in the off season, and depending on the use of "the Hester package", I think Earl's value will be found more in the end-zone and over the middle routes.  If there is one player I hope I'm wrong about, it's definitely Earl.  

Devin Hester

After making the switch to the Bear's number one wide receiver in 2009, Hester began to see a steady decline in his kick/punt return duties.  As a byproduct to the new additions to the wide receiver corps, Hester will see a lesser role, but will star in what Mike Tice has dubbed "The Hester Package".

What exactly this is, no one knows.  Whatever it is, it will most likely take advantage of the depth the Bears have a WR leaving Hester in more one-on-one situations, and forcing a defense to "pick it's poison".

Rec:  35 (O)

Rec Yards:  650 (O)

TDs:  4 (U)

Hester has indirectly made it known he wasn't a Mike Martz fan, as Martz didn't really find unique ways to use such a unique talent.  Mike Tice has made it known through training camp there will be a "Hester Package" available for the offense to use that will feature the speedy former Miami Hurricane player.  So it's safe to say, he will have the football thrown his way more this season versus what he has seen in the past.  Most of Hester's production has come from the Bears stretching the field vertically, and using his speed coming out of the backfield or on check down plays.  Since most secondaries are going to be focused on the two big guys on the outside, Earl in the slot, and keeping an eye on Forte in the backfield, Hester has the potential to make big plays.  It isn't really public knowledge, but most teams do not fear Hester as wide receiver.  But in the right package, with the right personnel, Hester can be that pivotal player that opens up the defense enough to stretch them vertically or catch them off-guard and create something out of nothing.

Joe's Sports Corner NFL Pre-Season Top 10

by Joe Persinger
@BrewMastrJoe on twitter











1.  New England

Yes, they lost Super Bowl earlier this year and the defense wasn't at its best performance.  But when a HOF head coach and QB are entering their 13th season as a tandem:  advantage New England.
The bean town juggernaut improved it's struggling defense through the draft, drafting a defense end and linebacker in the first round.  They bolstered their deep receiving corps with the addition of Brandon Lloyd, and hope Dan Woodhead and company can produce the a healthier run game.  The offense ranked 2cd in the passing attack, and if "Yo Soy Fiesta" boy and Brady match what they did last year, look out NFL.

The Patriots regular-season schedule also seems to favor them as well.  They won't face an elite QB until week 5 (Manning) and really won't see another QB challenge them until week 14 (Schaub).

2.  New York Giants

I'll be honest here.  The Giants are 1 of 2 teams in this top 10 that I've found to be over-rated.  They finished the season with a 9-7 record, good enough to get to the playoffs, and started playing ball at the right time.  But will that translate into next season?  Doubtful.  Second year rookie star corner back Prince Amukamara upgrades the defense, but the team did not address the defense in the draft, instead opting to add depth to an aging offensive line.  The Giants 5th ranked passing attack will carry this team, but I don't expect this team to match last year's success.

Instead, we will most likely watch them implode against their own division.  I picked this team to be a .500 team last year, and I'm basically sticking to that prediction for this year.  They will fade out of the Top 5 by the end of week 2.

3.  Green Bay

15-1 in the regular season doesn't mean much if you can't get past the 2cd round.  The Packer's spent most of the regular season in shoot-outs with their opponents masking their deficiencies on defense.  The team had mediocre success when it came to stopping the run, but the secondary couldn't stop the pass ranking 32cd and giving up an average of 300 yards a game.  The Packer's are built for the regular season, but not the playoffs.  The lack of run game has surprisingly not hampered this offense's potential, but this is a copy-cat league and the Giants did leave a blue print.  But with Aaron Rodgers under center with his various weapons (which posted the 5th ranked passing offense) this team is still poised to take the NFC by the balls.....again.

4.  Ravens

The Raven's aging defense put up impressive numbers last year leading the league in rushing yards against and fourth in passing yards against also.  The team addressed some defensive depth needs via free agency and the draft.  The defense has aged another year, but it doesn't look to be slowing down soon.  The aging offensive line was addressed in the off-season, but if this team is going to rely on Joe Flacco's arm (which is mediocre at best) it's going to be a long season.  Most of its success came through the ground game via Ray Rice.  The stats say it all.  When the Ravens pass 50+ times, they have yet to win.  When rice has 25+ carries, they have a higher percentage at winning the game.  Good thing they signed Ray Rice to a 4-year deal.

5.  Steelers

Has anyone ever noticed Tim Tebow's arm beat the Steeler's number one ranked passing defense?  OK, yes, he did it without the starting safety, but he still had 10 other guys to beat.  The Steeler's offense has received an overhaul bringing in Todd Haley as the new offensive cordinator.  The offense will suffer a huge blow if they can't retain vertical threat Mike Wallace (holdout), as he is in a bitter contract dispute after being franchise tagged this past off-sesaon.  It's going to be another great battle for the AFC North division crown this year, but the success of both offense/defense on this team is going to come down to health.  Troy Polamalu and Ben Roethisberger are a few that come to mind.  

6.  49ers

Meet the second over-rated NFL team on this list.  Playing in one of the worst divisions in football, half of the 49ers wins came from the lackluster NFC West.  Rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh did lead this team to an astounding 13-3 record with a horrendous QB and the 8th best rushing offense.  What really kept this team afloat was the defense.  Easily one of the best rushing defenses in the league last year, San Francisco would punish their opponents for rushing the ball, and turn them into a one dimensional passing offense.  It remains to be seen if the Golden Gate team can recapture last year's magic.  They've got a pretty tough schedule ahead of them (outside of their division) and Alex Smith isn't known for his consistency (Urban Meyer QB's never translate well to the NFL) and the 49ers showed that by trying to recruit Peyton Manning.  Funny how most 49er fan's seem to have forgotten that.

                                                       7.  Bears

Newly hired general manager Phil Emery made some bold moves this past off season and has made it clear that he wants this team to win now.  Bringing in Brandon Marshall through trade, drafting a solid defensive end, a second wide-out threat, and figured out a way to pay Matt Forte.  He has set them up with a revamped wide receiver corps, depth at the running back position, added depth to the defensive line and secondary.  The older and solid defense needs a consistent pass rush on opposing QB's, and most importantly, it needs to create turnovers.  The defense struggled against the pass (according to statistics), but that's a little misleading because the scheme they run allows short passes underneath the linebackers allowing opposing teams to rack up pass yards, but not points.  The Bear's enter this season with a lot of optimism and added talent.  Now they just need to execute and stay healthy.














8.  Texans

Ground and Pound.  The Texans posted some pretty impressive defensive numbers last year while they rushed their way into the playoffs.  Injuries to the team derailed their playoff success as they lost to the Ravens with Matt Schaub on the sidelines and T.J Yates taking snaps under center.  The Schaub-Johnson-Foster tandem only played 3 1/2 quarters together, in total, last season.  As the 2012 season approaches the healthy trio looks to dominate the AFC South again and lead the Texans to another division title.

9.  Saints

The Saints organization is in disarray.  Plagued with a drama filled off season that led to a year long suspension for head coach Sean Payton and middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma, the defense now finds itself in transition after Greg Williams left the team for the Rams(then was banned from the NFL).  Saddled with the 3rd worst passing defense, the Saints former all-star defense struggled against pure passing NFL QB's.  The off-field issues and departures is why the Saints find themselves on this side of power rankings.  When you have Drew Brees as a QB and 2 strong NFL drafts over the last two years, expect to see this team make its way back to the top 5 by the end of week 1 of the regular season.















                                                          10. Falcons

The Falcons climaxed in the 2011 divisional playoffs when they went one and out being eliminated by the Green Bay Packers.  Since then, despite the talent they've added, the Falcons seemed to have plateaued.   The offense is explosive and has weapons with a solid running game, but the defense struggles against the pass, and has never been consistent.  The Falcons play in a competitive division, facing the Drew Brees and the Saints twice, with a visit from Josh Freeman, and Rookie of the Year Cam Newtown.    

I imagine Mike Smith will be smelling the hot-seat if they fail to make the playoffs this year.